老年急性ST段抬高型心肌梗死患者PCI术后不良心血管事件影响因素分析及列线图预测模型建立
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(1.辽宁省金秋医院心血管内科,辽宁省沈阳市 110013;2.中国医学科学院阜外医院心血管内科,北京市 100037)

作者简介:

林芳,硕士,主治医师,研究方向为高血压、冠心病,E-mail:bi3813228@163.com。

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国家重点研发计划“中医药现代化研究”专项课题(2017YFC1700503)


Analysis of influencing factors of adverse cardiovascular events in elderly acute STEMI patients after PCI and establishment of nomogram prediction model
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1.Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Jinqiu Hospital, Liaoning Province, Shenyang, Liaoning 110013, China;2.Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing 100037, China)

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    目的]分析老年急性ST段抬高型心肌梗死(STEMI)患者经皮冠状动脉介入治疗(PCI)术后不良心血管事件影响因素,并建立列线图预测模型。 [方法]选取2021年2月—2023年1月在辽宁省金秋医院接受PCI术的老年急性STEMI患者216例,依照术后院内不良心血管事件发生情况划分为发生组(n=33)和未发生组(n=183)。收集所有患者一般资料、实验室指标、影像学检查资料、术后用药资料,采用单因素与多因素Logistic回归分析探究不良心血管事件独立危险因素,根据独立危险因素中性粒细胞/淋巴细胞比值(NLR)、血小板/淋巴细胞比值(PLR)、C反应蛋白/白蛋白比值(CAR)、C反应蛋白与高密度脂蛋白胆固醇比值(CHR)构建列线图预测模型,绘制校准曲线对列线图模型进行验证,并绘制受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线,分析列线图模型的预测效能。 [结果]发生组NLR、PLR、CAR、CHR水平及Gensini评分、血小板聚集率(PAR)明显较未发生组高,左心室射血分数(LVEF)明显较未发生组低(P<0.05);Logistic回归分析结果显示,Gensini评分、LVEF、PAR、NLR、PLR、CAR、CHR是老年急性STEMI患者PCI术后发生不良心血管事件的独立危险因素(P<0.05);根据独立危险因素构建预测老年急性STEMI患者PCI术后发生不良心血管事件风险的列线图模型,模型校准曲线与理想模型较为接近,ROC曲线显示,列线图预测不良心血管事件发生风险的ROC曲线下面积为0.914。 [结论]NLR、PLR、CAR、CHR是影响老年急性STEMI患者PCI术后发生不良心血管事件的独立危险因素,基于以上因素构建的列线图模型能有效预测老年急性STEMI患者PCI术后发生不良心血管事件的风险。

    Abstract:

    Aim To analyze the influencing factors of adverse cardiovascular events in elderly patients with acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), and to establish a nomogram prediction model. Methods A total of 216 elderly patients with acute STEMI who underwent PCI in Jinqiu Hospital of Liaoning Province from February 2021 to January 2023 were selected and divided into occurrence group (n=33) and non-occurrence group (n=183) according to the occurrence of postoperative adverse cardiovascular events. General data, laboratory indicators, imaging information, and postoperative medication data of all patients were collected.Univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analysis were used to explore independent risk factors for adverse cardiovascular events. A nomogram prediction model was constructed according to independent risk factors of neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet/lymphocyte ratio (PLR), C-reactive protein/albumin ratio (CAR), C-reactive protein to high density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio (CHR), calibration curve was drawn to verify the nomogram model, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was drawn to analyze the predictive efficacy of the predictive model for column line diagrams. Results The levels of NLR, PLR, CAR, CHR, Gensini score, and platelet aggregation ratio (PAR) were significantly higher in occurrence group than those in non-occurrence group, left ventricular ejection fraction(LVEF) was significantly lower in occurrence group (P<0.05). Logistic regression analysis showed that Gensini score, LVEF, PAR, NLR, PLR, CAR and CHR were independent risk factors for adverse cardiovascular events after PCI in elderly acute STEMI patients (P<0.05). The column-line diagram model for predicting the risk of adverse cardiac events after PCI in elderly acute STEMI patients was constructed based on independent risk factors, and the calibration curve of the model was close to the ideal model, and the ROC curve showed that the area under the ROC curve for the prediction of the risk of adverse cardiovascular events in the elderly acute STEMI patients was 0.914. Conclusion NLR, PLR, CAR and CHR are independent risk factors for adverse cardiovascular events in elderly acute STEMI patients after PCI, and the nomogram model constructed based on these factors can effectively predict the risk of adverse cardiovascular events in elderly acute STEMI patients after PCI.

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林芳,李寒雪,张琳,韩英,杨跃进.老年急性ST段抬高型心肌梗死患者PCI术后不良心血管事件影响因素分析及列线图预测模型建立[J].中国动脉硬化杂志,2024,32(4):319~324.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-08-18
  • 最后修改日期:2024-02-27
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  • 在线发布日期: 2024-04-29