急性Stanford A型主动脉夹层合并灌注不良综合征术后死亡的危险因素分析
作者:
作者单位:

(南充市中心医院急诊科,四川省南充市637000)

作者简介:

谢海燕,主管护师,主要从事急诊急救研究,E-mail:464488044@qq.com。

基金项目:

四川省科技计划项目(2020YHZ0183)


Analysis of risk factors for death after acute Stanford type A aortic dissection complicated with organ malperfusion
Author:
Affiliation:

Emergency Department of Nanchong Central Hospital, Nanchong, Sichuan 637000, China)

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    摘要:

    目的]探究急性Stanford A型主动脉夹层(ATAAD)合并灌注不良综合征(MPS)术后死亡的危险因素。 [方法]选取2020年6月—2023年6月南充市中心医院收治的244例ATAAD合并MPS患者为研究对象,追踪患者术后生存情况,分为存活组(156例)和死亡组(88例)。采用倾向性评分匹配(PSM)法按1∶1匹配后,两组均为54例,单因素和Logistic回归分析ATAAD合并MPS患者术后死亡的危险因素,受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线下面积(AUC)对ATAAD合并MPS患者进行预后分析。利用y=1-1/(1+e-z)回归方程建立预测模型,十字交叉验证法验证模型的稳定性。 [结果]匹配后,与存活组(n=54)比,死亡组(n=54)的男性占比、饮酒史占比、急性生理学和慢性健康状况评价Ⅱ(APACHE Ⅱ)评分、序贯器官功能衰竭(SOFA)评分、谷丙转氨酶(ALT)、谷草转氨酶(AST)、总胆红素(TSB)、胆碱酯酶、血清肌酐(SCr)、血尿素氮(BUN)、氨基末端脑钠肽前体(NT-proBNP)、D-二聚体(D-D)、白细胞计数(WBC)、中性粒细胞计数(NEU)、纤维蛋白原降解产物(FDP)、血小板(PLT)、纤维蛋白原(FIB)、C反应蛋白(CRP)、高敏肌钙蛋白、手术时间、ICU滞留时间、呼吸机带机时间、住院时间、肢体远端灌注不良、肾灌注不良方面均明显升高(P<0.05)。Logistic回归分析显示,性别(男)、有饮酒史、NT-proBNP≥271.86 ng/L、D-D≥0.74 mg/L和NEU≥13.06×109 L-1是ATAAD合并MPS患者术后死亡的独立危险因素(P<0.05)。NT-proBNP、D-D、性别(男)、饮酒史和NEU(简称“五因素”)联合预测ATAAD合并MPS患者的价值最高,其AUC为0.979(95%CI:0.937~0.984),灵敏度为94.3%,特异度为91.8%,高于独立预测指标。五因素联合预测的最佳临界值为5.02,>5.02组的生存率显著高于≤5.02组,Log Rank检验P<0.01。以ATAAD合并MPS患者术后死亡的重要因素建立预测模型,结果显示,模型具有良好的预测精准度。 [结论]NT-proBNP≥271.86 ng/L、D-D≥0.74 mg/L、性别(男)、有饮酒史、NEU≥13.06×109 L-1是ATAAD合并MPS患者长期预后的独立危险因素,其联合应用可有效增加预后评估的准确性。

    Abstract:

    Aim To investigate the risk factors of death after acute Stanford type A aortic dissection (ATAAD) complicated with malperfusion syndrome (MPS). Methods 244 patients with ATAAD complicated with MPS who admitted to Nanchong Central Hospital from June 2020 to June 2023 were selected as the study objects. The postoperative survival of the patients was followed up and they were classified into survival group (156 cases) and death group (88 cases). After propensity score matching (PSM) was applied in 1∶1 matching, there were 54 cases in both groups. Univariate and Logistic regression analysis was performed to analyze the risk factors of postoperative death in patients with ATAAD complicated with MPS. Area under curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristics (ROC) was used to analyze the prognosis of ATAAD complicated with MPS. The prediction model was established by using the regression equation y=1-1/(1+e-z) and the stability of the model was verified by cross-checking method. Results After matching, compared with the survival group (n=54), in the death group (n=54), the proportion of sex (male), the proportion of alcohol consumption, acute physiology and chronic health status Ⅱ (APACHE Ⅱ) score, sequential organ failure (SOFA) score, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), total serum bilirubin (TSB), cholinesterase, serum creatinine (SCr), blood urea nitrogen (BUN), N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), D-dimer (D-D), white blood cell (WBC), neutrophile granulocyte (NEU), fibrinogen degradation product (FDP), platelet (PLT), fibrinogen (FIB), C-reactive protein (CRP), hypersensitive troponin, operation time, ICU stay time, ventilator stay time, hospital stay, distal extremity hypoperfusion, renal hypoperfusion were significantly increased (P<0.05). Logistic analysis displayed that gender (male), history of drinking, NT-proBNP≥271.86 ng/L, D-D≥0.74 mg/L and NEU≥13.06×109 L-1 were independent risk factors in ATAAD patients complicated with MPS for postoperative death (P<0.05). The combination of NT-proBNP, D-D, gender (male), alcohol drinking history and NEU (referred to as “five factors”) had the highest value in predicting ATAAD patients with MPS. The AUC of its ROC curve was 0.979 (95%CI:0.937~0.984), the sensitivity was 94.3%, and the specificity was 91.8%, which was higher than the independent predictor. The best critical value predicted by the five factors was 5.02. The survival rate of the group >5.02 was significantly higher than that of the group ≤5.02. Log Rank test P<0.01. A prediction model was established based on the important factors of postoperative death in ATAAD patients with MPS. The results showed that the model had good prediction accuracy. Conclusion NT-proBNP≥271.86 ng/L, D-D≥0.74 mg/L, gender (male), history of alcohol consumption, and NEU≥×109 L-1 were independent risk factors for long-term prognosis in patients with ATAAD combined with MPS, and their combined application could effectively increase the accuracy of prognosis assessment.

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谢海燕,李虹雨,陈娟,邓艳丽,蔡纯,姜武云.急性Stanford A型主动脉夹层合并灌注不良综合征术后死亡的危险因素分析[J].中国动脉硬化杂志,2024,32(3):217~227.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-09-11
  • 最后修改日期:2023-12-29
  • 在线发布日期: 2024-04-07