基于预后营养指数对冠心病合并2型糖尿病患者发生主要不良心血管事件预测模型的构建与评价
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作者单位:

(1.河北北方学院研究生院,河北省张家口市075000;2.河北省人民医院心血管内科,河北省石家庄市050051)

作者简介:

陈坤,硕士研究生,研究方向为冠心病、心力衰竭,E-mail:ck1171757765@163.com。

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基金项目:

河北省重点研发计划项目(22377783D)


Construction and evaluation of a predictive model for the occurrence of major adverse cardiovascular events in patients with coronary heart disease combined with type 2 diabetes mellitus based on a prognostic nutritional index
Author:
Affiliation:

1.Graduate School of Hebei North College,Zhangjiakou, Hebei075000, China;2.Department of Cardiovascular Medicine,Hebei Provincial People's Hospital, Shijiazhuang, Hebei 050051, China)

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    摘要:

    目的]探讨基于预后营养指数(PNI)对冠心病(CHD)合并2型糖尿病(T2DM)患者发生主要不良心血管事件(MACE)的相关影响因素,并构建预测模型。 [方法]收集2022年1月—2023年1月于河北省人民医院心血管内科住院的391例CHD合并T2DM患者临床资料,随访1年,根据有无MACE发生,分为MACE组(n=99)与非MACE组(n=292)。采用随机数字法以7∶3的比例分为训练集(n=273)及验证集(n=118),依据训练集患者是否发生MACE,分为MACE(n=67)组和非MACE组(n=206)。采用Lasso回归筛选相关影响因素并构建列线图预测模型,通过绘制受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线、校准曲线、决策曲线(DCA)及临床影响曲线(CIC),对预测模型进行验证。 [结果]Lasso回归显示,使用血管紧张素受体脑啡肽酶抑制剂(ARNI)、空腹血糖(FBG)、C反应蛋白(CRP)、血小板/淋巴细胞比值(PLR)、脂蛋白(a)[Lp(a)]、PNI是CHD合并T2DM发生MACE的预测因素。基于上述预测因素构建列线图预测模型并对模型进行验证,训练集ROC曲线下面积(AUC)为0.838(95%CI:0.778~0.898),验证集的AUC为0.872(95%CI:0.803~0.942),模型的区分度良好;校准曲线在训练集和验证集的C值分别为0.838、0.872,具有较好的拟合度;决策曲线及临床影响曲线结果显示,列线图预测模型预测CHD合并T2DM患者发生MACE的净收益率较高,临床实用性较强。 [结论]PNI是CHD合并T2DM患者发生MACE的影响因素,基于PNI等预测因子所构建的列线图模型对于预测CHD合并T2DM患者发生MACE方便临床使用,具有较高的预测价值。

    Abstract:

    Aim To investigate the related influencing factors of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in coronary heart disease (CHD) patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) based on prognostic nutritional index (PNI), and to construct a prediction model. Methods The clinical data of 391 patients with CHD combined with T2DM who were hospitalised in the Department of Cardiovascular Medicine of Hebei Provincial People's Hospital from January 2022 to January 2023 were collected and followed up for 1 year, and were divided into the MACE group (n=99) and the non-MACE group (n=292) according to the presence or absence of the occurrence of MACE, and were divided into the training set (n=273) and the validation set (n=118) in a ratio of 7∶3 by using the computer-generated random number method, and the patients in the training set were divided into the MACE (n=67) group and the non-MACE group (n=206) according to whether they had MACE or not. Lasso regression was used to screen the relevant influencing factors and to construct the prediction model of the column-line diagram, and the prediction model was validated by plotting receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, decision curve analysis (DCA), and clinical impact curve (CIC). Results Lasso regression showed that the use of angiotensin receptor neprilysin inhibitor (ARNI), fasting blood glucose (FBG), C-reactive protein (CRP), platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR), lipoprotein(a) (Lp(a), and PNI were the predictors of the occurrence of MACE in patients with CHD combined with T2DM. A column-line graph prediction model was constructed and validated based on the above predictors, and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.838(95%CI:0.778~0.898) in the training set and 0.872(95%CI:0.803~0.942) in the validation set, with a good discriminatory degree of the model, and the C-values of the calibration curves in the training set and the validation set were 0.838 and 0.872, respectively, with good fit. The results of the decision curve analysis and the clinical impact curve showed that the column-line graph prediction model had a higher net yield of MACE in patients with CHD combined with T2DM, with high clinical utility. Conclusion PNI is an influential factor in the occurrence of MACE in patients with CHD combined with T2DM, and the column-line graphical model constructed on the basis of predictors such as PNI is convenient for clinical use and has high predictive value in predicting the occurrence of MACE in patients with CHD combined with T2DM.

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陈坤,安慧,齐鹏,陈淑霞,谷剑.基于预后营养指数对冠心病合并2型糖尿病患者发生主要不良心血管事件预测模型的构建与评价[J].中国动脉硬化杂志,2025,33(2):125~134.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-09-26
  • 最后修改日期:2024-11-12
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-03-05